What results were achieved with Operation “Roar of the Lion”? – An overview
After 40 days of attacks by Israel and the United States on the Ayatollah / Revolutionary Guard regime in Iran, and now that a temporary ceasefire has been agreed, we can conclude the following:Iran is, for the time being, no longer capable of posing a threat to Israel and the West.
What results were achieved with the operations “Roar of the Lion” and “Epic Fury”? An overview.
The elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the neutralization of his son Mojtaba, the successor, who is in a coma in a hospital in Qom
The elimination of dozens of high-ranking figures from the upper tiers of Iran’s political and military leadership
The total destruction of the Iranian navy
The total destruction of the Iranian air force; all aircraft and helicopters were destroyed, including transport planes used to smuggle weapons and supplies
The destruction of almost the entire Iranian air defence system
The destruction of the vast majority of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers and missiles, including those located under mountains by bombing their entrances
Destruction of the Iranian military-industrial complex in all its components, especially factories producing missiles and nuclear drones
Destruction of most of Iran’s steel industry, an important source of income and vital for its defense sector
Destruction of a large part of Iran’s petrochemical/oil industry, its main source of income
Destruction of key infrastructure: bridges, railways, several power plants, as well as the gas installation in the South Pars field
Destruction of hundreds of Basij and police centers across Iran, reducing the regime’s ability to suppress the population
Destruction of dozens of Iranian army and Revolutionary Guard bases, and most weapons storage facilities
Attacks on Iran’s international airports
Elimination of approximately ten thousand Revolutionary Guard and regime troops
Associated effects:
Israel carried out, for the first time since the “12-day war,” a military operation of unprecedented international scale in cooperation with the world’s only superpower, the United States. NATO allies stayed out and even reacted hostilely. This significantly strengthened Israel’s status, emphasizing military power and closeness to the U.S. Israel became the leading and preferred ally of the U.S.
Israeli-produced weapons and defence systems proved their superiority on the battlefield. A significant increase in international demand is expected. Whether Europeans will benefit remains uncertain given their hostile and persistent stance toward Israel since October 7, 2023
Increased hostility from Gulf states toward Iran and simultaneous rapprochement with Israel, significantly strengthening ties with the Arab world
Regional deterrence: a major blow to the “regional bully,” making it far less threatening to neighboring countries
The urgency of creating alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz has increased. Infrastructure projects are expected to accelerate, weakening Iran’s grip on the strait. Oil and gas could be transported via pipelines through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel to the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean
Israel continues to push Hezbollah far beyond the Litani River and eliminate it in Beirut despite the ceasefire. More Israeli Air Force aircraft are now available for this mission after the ceasefire with Iran
What still needs to be done? Trump’s 15 demands to Iran:
Dismantle all major nuclear facilities
End all uranium enrichment on Iranian territory
Remove enriched uranium stockpiles from Iran
Allow intrusive international inspections everywhere
Permanently abandon any path to nuclear weapons
Stop the development of ballistic missiles
Stop the production of long-range missiles
Stop the transfer of drones and military exports to proxies
Stop support for Hamas
Stop support for Hezbollah
Stop support for Iraqi Shiite militias and proxy groups
Stop weapons deliveries to the Houthis
Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Stop threatening regional shipping and Gulf states
Accept a broader regional de-escalation framework, including limits on military escalation with Israel
Iran’s 10 demands to Trump:
A binding guarantee that the U.S. and its allies (Israel) will not attack Iran again
A permanent end to hostilities, not just a temporary ceasefire
An end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon
Lifting all U.S. sanctions
Protection of Iran’s regional proxies and allied militias
Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian conditions
A toll reportedly around $2 million per ship, shared with Oman
Compensation and reconstruction support for war damage in Iran
Recognition of Iran’s (regional) security interests
A framework for long-term negotiations without immediate surrender of nuclear strategic capabilities
Both parties understand each other’s positions, yet still agreed to a ceasefire.Trump may have blinked first, partly because the objectives had effectively already been achieved. But we will see who has the final word.
And Europe, Europe stands on the sidelines. Because European leaders said “this is not our war,” they turned their backs on the United States, even though a neutralised Iranian regime is also in Europe’s interest. Beyond withholding support, several European countries even prohibited the U.S. from using their airspace and military bases in Europe.
The Trump administration has already indicated that this is absolutely not appreciated, and after the military action in Iran, the role of NATO countries for the U.S. will be reassessed. The United States (and Israel) have shown they do not need Europe. Conversely, Europe depends heavily on the U.S. and Israel, especially their defence industries and intelligence. European NATO partners have unnecessarily put this at risk.
The reason appears to be fear of internal unrest, particularly among Europe’s Muslim population, which has grown to tens of millions and become a significant factor. Tragically, the Arab world has meanwhile become a reliable partner for Israel, while Europeans are no longer seen as such.
The result achieved by Operations “Roar of the Lion” and “Epic Fury” is significant for Israel and the United States—and for Europe, the realisation that it is no longer relevant and must rely on itself.
Europe does not have the Trump card.
Image credits: Library of Congress via Unsplash
