US Elections - Republicans Lose Because of Trump, but Democrats Also Face a Risk
The US elections have sent a clear signal. The Republicans suffered heavy losses, and in our view, a significant part of the reason lies with Trump, and especially with his behaviour. Many Republican voters were simply not motivated enough to go to the polls, while Democrats and their voters were especially motivated to vote against Trump and his policies. That completely changed the political balance. But anyone who thinks this automatically means that America is permanently shifting to the left is, in our view, drawing the wrong conclusion.
The Democrats made major gains in these US elections and secured a strong position in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The result is without question a serious defeat for the Republican Party. However, it is important to distinguish between a vote for the Democrats and a vote against the president.
Many Americans appear to have voted primarily because of dissatisfaction with Trump. His style of communication, his constant conflicts, particularly with allied countries such as Canada and Denmark, and the chaos that regularly surrounds his presidency have driven away some moderate voters. At the same time, part of his own base seems to be less motivated when Trump himself is not personally on the ballot.
That is an important problem for the Republicans. Trump has been able to energise enormous groups of people when the election is about him personally, but that personal popularity apparently does not automatically transfer to other Republican candidates.
Democrats Were Much More Motivated
On the other hand, motivation among Democratic voters was particularly high. For them, these US elections were an opportunity to create a counterweight to Trump. People who are angry with a president often have more reason to go out and vote than those who are reasonably satisfied with the political situation.
That difference in motivation can be enormously important in midterm elections. Americans also tend to prefer balance and do not usually vote for political extremes in general elections. Primary elections, however, can produce more extreme outcomes because participation is more closely tied to party affiliation.
In addition, a number of very left-wing Democratic candidates have now been elected, including some who in certain cases can be described as anti-Western and anti-Israel. Within the Democratic Party, this will likely be seen as evidence that a more progressive course can succeed. But that is exactly where a major risk for the Democrats lies. Jewish Democrats may see this result as a negative development for their own political views.
America is not a country that automatically wants to keep moving further to the left. Winning midterm elections does not mean that every progressive political message is supported by a majority of Americans.
If Democrats interpret this result as a license to move increasingly further left over the next two years, the next presidential election could turn out very differently, especially if someone such as Marco Rubio becomes the Republican candidate.
America’s Two-Party System Reinforces the Extremes
One fundamental problem is the American two-party system.
In Europe, we are used to having several political parties. If a voter is dissatisfied with a centre-right party, they can switch to another right-wing or centrist party. The same applies on the left.
In the United States, that option barely exists. In major elections, voters ultimately have two main choices: Democrats or Republicans.
As a result, election outcomes can look much more extreme than the population itself really is.
When voters become fed up with one party, there is practically only one alternative left. They then vote for the other party, even if they strongly disagree with many of that party’s positions.
We previously saw this work in Trump’s favour, and now we are seeing the same mechanism working in the opposite direction.
The US elections therefore do not represent only a shift to the left. They are above all a warning to whichever party currently holds power.
Florida Tells a Different Story
One of the most interesting results can be seen in Florida.
There, Republican Byron Donalds was elected governor. He becomes the first Black governor of Florida and also the first Black Republican in American history to be elected governor of a state. He won a close election against Democratic candidate David Jolly.
Under normal circumstances, this should be a major historic story.
Yet we have the impression that this result is receiving very little attention in much of the European media, even though you might expect otherwise. Donalds does not easily fit into the narrative about American politics that is often presented in the media.
He is Black, conservative and Republican.
A Black politician becoming governor as a Republican does not fit neatly into the simplistic image that minorities automatically belong to progressive or Democratic politics.
European media have, of course, reported to some extent on his victory, but the question is how much prominent attention such a historic result will ultimately receive. The British newspaper The Guardian, for example, did report on Donalds and highlighted the fact that he is becoming Florida’s first Black governor.
For us, his victory mainly shows that skin colour does not determine what someone’s political beliefs must be.
A Black American can be left-wing, right-wing, vote Democratic or vote Republican. That should actually be completely self-evident. But within left-wing politics and media, this is not always acknowledged.
Not Every Defeat Means the End of a Political Movement
The mistake that is made after every major election result is that commentators immediately assume a permanent political change has taken place.
After Trump’s victory, people said the Democratic Party had a huge problem. Now that the Democrats have achieved major victories, people will say that Trump and the Republican movement have been decisively rejected.
Both conclusions are too simplistic.
American voters can change direction remarkably strongly within just two years. Especially in a two-party system, a relatively small shift among independent and moderate voters can have enormous political consequences.
Republicans therefore need to take a serious look at why they lost these elections.
They need to ask themselves whether every election should continue to revolve around Trump. His confrontational style strongly motivates his most loyal supporters, but at the same time it motivates his opponents at least as much.
In the 2026 US elections, that latter effect appears to have been particularly important. Democrats ultimately won both the House and the Senate, while Republicans lost ground in several states and districts.
In Two Years, Everything Could Change Again
In two years, the presidential election will once again begin shaping the political landscape.
For Democrats, this creates both an opportunity and a major risk.
If they use the next two years to present themselves as a broad centrist party that also appeals to moderate and independent Americans, they may be able to hold on to their current gains.
But if the most left-wing faction of the party concludes that this result proves America is ready for a radical progressive agenda, it could have exactly the opposite effect.
Moderate voters could then move back to the right.
Trump has changed the Republican Party, but he will not remain its central figure forever. The question is what direction the party chooses after him and whether it can once again appeal to voters who are conservative but tired of constant political confrontation.
The Democrats should therefore be cautious about their victory.
These elections are a major defeat for the Republicans, but they are no guarantee of long-term Democratic power.
In America’s two-party system, political momentum can change extremely quickly.
Today, Republicans are being punished because many of their own voters stayed home while Trump’s opponents were particularly motivated.
In two years, exactly the opposite could happen.
If the Democrats move too far to the left, they may discover that today’s major victory actually laid the groundwork for their next defeat.
Image Credits: AI-generated editorial illustration.
