Pax Americana as the new world order – Belgium and Europe on the sideline

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Over the past year, it had already become visible: the United States under President Donald Trump absolutely does not want a second North Korea with a nuclear weapon and decided that now is the time for action. The bombardments of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure proved insufficient, and the momentum was there. All leaders were gathered in one place, and together with Israel, the U.S. could eliminate the regime in a single strike.

Royal Palace Brussels

The beginning was promising. The problem that followed is that Iran possesses a vast number of drones that are not easily neutralised. Ukraine, which has faced the same Iranian drone terror in its war, has meanwhile developed relatively inexpensive anti-drone systems and is offering to deploy this expertise here as well. Shooting down thousands of cheap drones with defence systems costing hundreds of thousands of dollars per missile is difficult to sustain in the long run, even for the wealthy West and the U.S.

The Islamic ayatollah regime with a nuclear weapon is a threat to the entire free West, with Israel at the forefront. The U.S. has recognised this and supports Israel. Over the past two years, Israel has largely neutralised most Iranian proxies across various fronts. Through targeted strikes on leadership and missile launch installations, the regime in Iran itself has also been severely weakened.

The next step is to permanently eliminate the remaining weapons capacity. The Strait of Hormuz, which largely runs along the Iranian coast, is the artery of international oil trade. Most of this oil is destined for China.

By targeting Iran and simultaneously bringing Venezuelan oil under American influence, the U.S. kills two birds with one stone: Iran is neutralised, and China becomes dependent on the United States. Pax Americana thus returns. The multipolar world—in which regional powers such as China and Russia, together with their allies like Iran and Venezuela, the so-called “axis of evil,” attempt to marginalise the U.S.—is thereby dismantled. By also exerting influence over the Panama Canal, the U.S. aims to reclaim its position in both the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East.

Europe stands on the sidelines and watches. European leaders mainly call for de-escalation, but according to this reasoning, there is little to de-escalate. The U.S. is attempting to reclaim its hegemony, with the help of the small but militarily very strong Israel.

According to this view, the free West should unconditionally support Israel and the U.S.: they are taking risks that also affect our security. Instead, European support remains limited. Is this due to aversion toward Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu? Or do European politicians lack strategic insight? Pax Americana, as the world order structured after the Second World War, is in principle the cradle of European integration and has kept the world safe for decades—until the rise of China and the presidency of Putin in Russia began to undermine it.

Europe’s energy supply has become largely dependent on Russia and the Middle East, partly due to climate policy choices, the closure of nuclear power plants in countries such as Belgium and Germany, and the scaling down of gas extraction in the Netherlands, despite the presence of gas reserves for decades to come.

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has inherited this policy from previous governments. His party N-VA and the Walloon MR govern together with smaller left-wing parties that are critical of nuclear energy, Israel, and President Trump.

De Wever, like many European leaders, has stated that the war against Iran is not “our war.” Yet this situation directly affects Europe: while the U.S. is largely energy independent, Europe is not. Energy flows via the Middle East, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as migration and the associated terrorism issues from the region, affect Europe far more.

By largely leaving the U.S. and Israel to deal with these problems alone, Europe risks drifting further away from the U.S. President Trump has already labeled European countries as weak NATO partners. This war may not be a NATO conflict, but the same applies to the war in Ukraine, where Europe is actually taking a leading role. Both Ukraine and the Middle East touch on European interests.

It is time for European leaders to take a clear position in favour of the free, democratic West and act against what is described as the largest terrorist state Iran has been for decades. Notably, several Arab countries in the Middle East—openly or not—support the U.S. and Israel.

The question arises whether Western European politics is being guided by fear of the far left and the radical Muslim vote in Europe. If so, that does not bode well for the future.Both Belgium and Germany are dealing with complex coalitions. De Wever in Belgium and Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Germany must govern with parties that make it difficult to fundamentally reform energy and security policy.

The United Kingdom and France face a similar issue under their leaders Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, both of whom are losing political strength and are increasingly seen as “lame ducks.” These major European countries, which are increasingly distancing themselves from the United States, thus foreshadow a broader trend. President Trump has not missed the fact that these countries are taking distance from the U.S.

Within Europe, Italy and Poland currently maintain relatively strong ties with the U.S., although historically these are not the most stable or powerful countries.

The question remains whether Europe will still actively participate, or once again leave the U.S. to act largely alone, with possible consequences for the future of NATO.

Even smaller countries such as Belgium must make choices in this regard and can help shape direction. Prime Minister De Wever is known as a pragmatist with an Atlantic reflex and strategic insight. The question is whether he can maintain that course, hindered by his smaller coalition partners who are averse to Trump and Netanyahu.

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Photo by Athnithan Vignakaran via unsplash