More than a year has passed since the federal government took office - An assessment of one year of policy under Prime Minister Bart De Wever (N-VA)

Since February of last year, after 239 days of negotiations, Belgium’s current government has been in command on Rue de la Loi. For the first time, right-wing parties are the largest forces on both sides of the linguistic divide: in Flanders, the conservative N-VA; in Wallonia, the liberal MR. Together they form the core of the coalition, which is further supported by Wallonia’s centre-left liberal Les Engagés, the Flemish socialists of Vooruit, and the Flemish Christian democrats of CD&V.

For the first time in nearly four decades, Wallonia’s Socialist Party, the PS, has been left out of federal government. And for the first time, the Flemish conservative N-VA has supplied the prime minister, in the person of Bart De Wever https://premier.be/en What, then, has this new political order delivered for Belgium so far?

Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever

To begin with, the De Wever government has concluded several major political agreements on labour, pensions, taxation, the federal budget, and defence. On defence, the shift has been especially striking. For years, Belgium languished near the bottom of the NATO table when it came to military spending as a share of gross domestic product, hovering at around 1 percent. Since 2025, that figure has been raised to the alliance’s 2 percent benchmark. Yet that is no longer enough: the target has since been lifted to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2035 in direct military spending, plus another 1.5 percent for defence-related investments such as infrastructure. The road back to a credible military posture remains long, but under De Wever, Defence Minister Theo Francken https://www.theofrancken.be/ has been busily trying to rebuild and modernise the armed forces.

That effort, however, is hardly eased by the coalition’s internal fault lines. Francken is an outspoken Atlanticist who has pushed for rapid increases in defence spending. His counterpart Maxime Prévot https://diplomatie.belgium.be/en/about-us/ministers/minister-maxime-prevot of Les Engagés takes a sharply different view, emerging as a vocal critic of President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, and arguing instead for greater investment in diplomacy and development aid. There is consensus on support for Ukraine. On Israel and the war with Iran under President Trump, however, the coalition is deeply divided. Prévot favours sanctions against Israel, while Francken has defended the Israeli-American strike on Iran as justified. These differences have become a constant source of political tension inside the government.

On labour, pensions and social security, the government has clearly embraced reform. It has limited unemployment benefits to a maximum of two years and shifted more support toward social assistance through local welfare offices and sickness benefits. Labour reform also includes changes to the special social security contribution, intended to make work,  especially for single people, more financially attractive.

A third major issue concerns the long-term sick. Here, too, the government has acted, adopting measures to tighten and accelerate the reintegration of workers deemed unfit for work.

The pension package is broad. The cabinet approved twelve draft bills, all designed around one central principle: a stronger link between actual years worked and pension entitlements. A bonus-malus system for earlier or later retirement is to be introduced. Rules for early retirement are being tightened, although an additional option is being created for those with exceptionally long careers to stop work from the age of 60. For civil servants, some of the more favourable regimes are being rolled back, including preferential retirement ages, index-linked adjustments, and certain credited absences. A solidarity contribution on large supplementary pensions has also been introduced.

Taken together, these measures are meant to keep more people in work for longer and to preserve the affordability of social security and pension spending. The full results will only become visible over time, though the first effects of limiting unemployment benefits are already beginning to show.

Tax reform has proved more difficult. The reason is simple: the coalition remains divided over where exactly reform should fall. Tax increases are anathema to the Walloon coalition partners, which is why neither a VAT increase nor a broader fiscal overhaul has yet materialised. Still, some steps have been taken to reduce the burden on labour, including a lower special social security contribution, a higher work bonus, and a tax deduction for the self-employed. By 2029, the idea is that work should, on average, yield more net income.

On wealth taxation, the government has also enacted a limited reform. It has developed a capital gains tax on financial assets, set at 10 percent, with an annual exemption of €10,000 and a special regime for those holding a substantial interest.

Other issues remain unresolved. One of them is the UN Migration Pact, the Marrakesh Pact, which has not been revoked, despite the fact that N-VA walked out of the Michel government over its approval in 2018. Migration is becoming an ever larger issue in Belgium, and the argument here is that such pacts increasingly constrain the country’s room to pursue an independent migration policy. One change has been made, however: Belgium has decided to stop granting Palestinians collective asylum. It had been the only country in the world to do so, and as a result a large share of displaced Palestinians had made their way to Belgium.

Then there is the question of the new world order. Under President Trump’s new approach, the international balance has shifted, leaving Europe - Belgium included - largely on the sidelines. A new foreign policy, the argument goes, is therefore needed to guarantee Belgium’s security in the years ahead. Yet given the differences among the coalition’s socialist, Christian democratic and liberal components, reaching agreement on a durable foreign policy is likely to be contentious. Turning partly away from the United States and Israel, in this view, has done little to improve Belgium’s security position.

Another persistent flashpoint is Belgium’s system of automatic wage indexation. Under this mechanism, wages in both the private and public sectors, along with benefits, are increased twice a year. It is an expensive system under any circumstances, and especially so in a period of elevated inflation.

All told, one can conclude that Bart De Wever’s government has begun a programme of social reform whose effects, if they come, will be felt mainly over the longer term. On the fiscal front, it has made a start in restraining expenditure, but public debt continues to climb sharply. Se here our article of 26 March regarding the Belgian federal budget: https://www.benews.media/post/federal-budget-under-pressure-belgium-still-needs-to-cut-4-9-billion

On defence, a significant step has been taken by doubling spending. Yet with the target now rising to 3.5 percent of GDP and with the need for a new foreign policy framework still unresolved, further disputes inside the coalition seem inevitable. And as the Marrakesh Pact once demonstrated, a Belgian government can fall over foreign policy. Should that happen again, Belgium could find itself without a government for an extended period, a prospect ill-suited to an already unsettled age.

Image credits: Federal Government of Belgium