Illegal Migration, Ceuta and Morocco – Europe Allows Itself to Be Blackmailed Again

Illegal migration, Ceuta, and migration from Morocco are once again dominating the European news this week.

The events in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta show not only that Europe is losing control of its external borders, but above all that countries such as Morocco are deliberately using migration as a means of political pressure. Europe’s response has been the same for years: lots of words, lots of money, and hardly any consequences for the countries putting Europe under pressure. That must change. Europe is once again allowing itself to be blackmailed.

The events in Ceuta this week should be setting off alarm bells in Brussels, Madrid, and every European capital. Once again, we saw hundreds of migrants reach the Spanish enclave from Morocco. Once again, the vulnerability of Europe’s external border was exposed. And once again, it became clear that Europe has little control over a situation that has long since ceased to be merely a humanitarian crisis and is increasingly being used as a geopolitical instrument of power.

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Anyone pretending that this was a spontaneous migration flow is fooling themselves. Morocco has an extensive security apparatus and has demonstrated on more than one occasion in recent years that it is perfectly capable of controlling its borders when it is in its interests to do so. The sudden increase in migration to Ceuta is therefore not a natural phenomenon. It is a political choice. For Morocco, migration has now become a permanent element of Rabat’s foreign policy. Whenever the government wants more financial support, diplomatic concessions, or greater political room for manoeuvre, border controls suddenly seem to become less important. This pattern has now been repeated so many times that no one can seriously maintain that it is merely a coincidence every time.

The bitter irony is that Europe repeatedly allows itself to be caught off guard, even though it knows exactly how this game is played. After every new migration wave, the same rituals follow. European leaders express their concerns, visit Rabat, announce additional cooperation, and once again allocate millions or even billions of euros to border control. Calm then temporarily returns, until the next crisis emerges and migration from Morocco is once again used as a means of pressure. Europe is effectively paying not to be blackmailed. That is not a strategy. It is capitulation.

And Morocco is not the only country doing this. Turkey under President Erdoğan is also highly adept at it. In addition, the EU’s other non-democratic “neighbours” in North Africa, as well as Belarus, are perfectly capable of extracting money from Europe through these kinds of blackmail tactics.

But responsibility does not lie exclusively with Morocco. The Spanish government also bears significant responsibility for the pull effect created by its migration policy. Spain’s Supreme Court has now made it impossible to immediately return migrants who arrive by sea. This has made the legal reality simple for people smugglers and potential migrants: once Spanish territory is reached, it often means entering a lengthy procedure in which the chance of being allowed to stay is considerably greater than the chance of a swift return.

On top of this comes the policy of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who ultimately wants to offer around one million migrants living illegally in Spain the prospect of legalisation. What message does that send? That anyone who manages to reach Spain and remains in the country long enough may eventually have a chance of obtaining a residence permit. That is precisely why illegal migration continues to increase. People naturally respond to opportunities. When the likelihood of legalisation increases, so does the attraction.

The consequences are not limited to Spain. Spain guards an external border of the Schengen Area. When one member state pursues policies that are more attractive than those of other countries, it undermines the trust on which Schengen is built. Why should other member states keep their internal borders open if the external border is not effectively protected? The Dublin Agreement and the European Migration Pact are consequently put into question once again. Ultimately, illegal migration affects the whole of Europe, not just Spain. A migrant who is legally resident in Spain can travel directly and legally to the much wealthier countries of Northwestern Europe—countries such as Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany, which are already very densely populated and have large migrant populations within their borders.

Yet Europe continues to focus on treating the symptoms rather than addressing the cause. The real cause does not lie in Ceuta, but in Rabat and Ankara. Morocco and Turkey have repeatedly demonstrated in recent years that they regard migration as a geopolitical instrument. Opening or closing migration routes becomes part of negotiations over money, trade, and political concessions. It is a cynical strategy in which vulnerable people are used as leverage against European governments.

Why would these countries stop doing so? After all, the method works extremely well. Every new migration crisis ultimately leads to new financial support, new agreements, and new economic advantages. Europe effectively rewards the very behaviour it simultaneously complains about. Migration from Morocco has therefore developed into a profitable bargaining tool.

This is all the more remarkable because the European Union is economically many times stronger than the countries putting it under pressure. The European single market is one of the largest economic blocs in the world. Access to that market is of vital importance to countries such as Morocco and Turkey. Both countries benefit from extensive trade relations with the European Union. Morocco also receives billions of euros in European support for economic development, border control, and cooperation.

Yet Europe never uses this position of power as leverage, as though economic influence were something to be ashamed of. International politics is not about good intentions, but about interests. Countries act when the cost of doing nothing becomes greater than the cost of cooperating.

That is precisely why it is interesting to look at the approach taken by the United States under President Donald Trump. His style was confrontational, but on this issue the message was clear: countries that refused to cooperate could expect enormous economic consequences. Mexico was put under intense pressure to significantly strengthen its own border controls with Guatemala. Colombia also eventually cooperated in taking back illegal migrants after economic pressure was increased. Turkey was pushed towards bankruptcy with a single threatening tweet from Trump after Erdoğan had imprisoned an American pastor and refused to release him. Trump brought all of these countries into line within a matter of days. The lesson is simple: threatening severe economic measures works, but only if the other side believes that you are genuinely prepared to carry them out. And with Trump, they believe it.

Europe has just as much economic influence, but lacks the political will and unity to use it. Instead of attaching strict conditions to billions in financial support and trade agreements, the European Union continues to hope that diplomatic dialogue will be sufficient. Years of experience have demonstrated the opposite.

If Europe genuinely wants to gain control over illegal migration, it will have to adopt a fundamentally different course. Financial support and trade agreements should be made conditional on demonstrable results in border control and returns. Countries that deliberately use migration as a means of political pressure must face direct consequences. These could include visa requirements with long waiting periods, the suspension of subsidies, the revision of trade agreements, the withholding of pension and benefit payments, comprehensive scrutiny of financial transactions, and high trade tariffs. Not as an act of revenge, but because international cooperation only works when agreements have consequences. If Europe were to send out a single tweet like Trump, all of these threats would already have served their purpose, and those countries would immediately cooperate.

At the same time, Europe must make clear that illegal entry does not automatically lead to the prospect of a prolonged stay. A strict, predictable, and credible migration policy is ultimately fairer than a system that gives people the impression that making a dangerous crossing will eventually be rewarded.

Migration to Ceuta this week was not an isolated incident. It was yet another demonstration of the weakness of Europe’s current migration policy. As long as Europe refuses to use its economic power, it will remain at the mercy of regimes that use migration as a geopolitical weapon. And as long as governments such as Pedro Sánchez’s create the impression that illegal migration may ultimately result in legalisation, pressure on Europe’s external borders will continue to increase.

Europe has all the economic, diplomatic, and political means necessary to reverse this development. What is lacking is not power. What is lacking is the political courage to finally use that power.

Image credits: Hartono Creative Studio via Unsplash